European Election 2014 in the East of England

Here are my predictions for how the D’Hondt method will allocate seats in the European election in the East of England in 2014.

The number of seats allocated is the share of the vote divided by the D’Hondt quota rounded down to the nearest whole number.

Predicted D’Hondt quota 9.3%

Predicted Votes in 2014, Swing from 2009 and Seats

Party	Votes in 2014	Swing from 2009	Seats
Conservative	Less than 27.9%	More -ve than -3.3%	2
UKIP	More than 27.9%	More +ve than +8.3%	3
Liberal Democrat	Close to 9.3%	Close to -4.5%	0 or 1
Labour	Close to 18.6%	Close to +8.1%	1 or 2
Green	Less than 9.3%	Less +ve than +0.5%	0

The 1st Liberal Democrat or 2nd Labour seat will set the D’Hondt quota.