European Election 2014 in the East of England

Here are my predictions for how the D’Hondt method will allocate seats in the European election in the East of England in 2014.

The number of seats allocated is the share of the vote divided by the D’Hondt quota rounded down to the nearest whole number.

Predicted D’Hondt quota 9.3%

Predicted Votes in 2014, Swing from 2009 and Seats

Party Votes in 2014
Swing from 2009 Seats
Conservative Less than 27.9% More -ve than -3.3% 2
UKIP More than 27.9% More +ve than +8.3% 3
Liberal Democrat Close to 9.3% Close to -4.5% 0 or 1
Labour Close to 18.6% Close to +8.1% 1 or 2
Green Less than 9.3% Less +ve than +0.5% 0

The 1st Liberal Democrat or 2nd Labour seat will set the D’Hondt quota.

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